Russia’s bold gamble: Recognition of the Taliban to redraw regional power dynamics

• Russia became the first major power to formally recognize the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan this month.
• The move aims to deepen economic ties, counter Chinese and Turkish influence in Central Asia and secure control over regional transportation corridors like the PAKAFUZ railway.
• U.S. President Trump’s push to reoccupy Bagram Airbase adds urgency as Moscow seeks to block American resurgence in the region.
• Iran’s instability threatens the viability of rival transport routes, making Russia’s alternative vision—projected to connect Central Asia to Pakistan’s markets—more critical.
• Russia simultaneously works to mediate Afghan-Pakistani tensions to ensure stability for proposed infrastructure projects.

Russia’s recognition of the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government, announced Thursday, marks a decisive strategic shift in Moscow’s approach to Central Asia. By becoming the first major power to diplomatically engage the Islamist regime since its 2021 comeback, Russia aims to solidify its influence in a region it views as its traditional sphere of control. The timing is no accident: as U.S. President Donald Trump lobbies to repatriate troops to Bagram Airbase, Turkey expands its sway eastward, and Iran’s post-war fragility jeopardizes key trade corridors, Russia is positioning itself to fill emerging geopolitical voids.

The decision, approved by President Vladimir Putin, reverses years of exclusion under the Taliban’s pre-2021 designation as terrorists. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko formalized the move by accepting Ambassador Ghulam Hassan’s credentials in Moscow, while the Taliban flag—hoisted atop their embassy for the first time in four years—signifies a symbolic rupture with Taliban-banned predecessor symbols. “These steps reflect Moscow’s genuine desire to build a full-fledged partnership with Afghanistan,” said Russia’s ambassador to Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov, emphasizing Russia’s century-old ties to the region.

Strategic calculus: Counterbalancing Beijing, Ankara and Washington

At its core, Russia’s gambit is about halting competitors’ inroads. Beijing’s dominance over Eurasian economic corridors—such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor—has long rankled Moscow, which lacks comparable investment capacity. Recognizing the Taliban paves the way for Russian participation in the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan (PAKAFUZ) railway, a project that could link Central Asian markets to Pakistan’s port of Gwadar, bypassing Chinese networks.

Simultaneously, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent overtures to Central Asia—a region Russia historically shields as its “near abroad”—pose direct competition. Analysts note the Kremlin’s effort to “gently counterbalance” Ankara’s economic and cultural soft power, including Turkey’s growing clout in Turkic-speaking Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

The U.S. factor is equally critical. Trump’s advocacy for reinvesting in Afghanistan resurrects memories of Russia’s Cold War-era concerns about NATO enlargement. By reinforcing the Taliban’s political legitimacy, Moscow seeks to deter a reassertion of American military presence—a prospect that traumatizes regional allies scarred by 20-year U.S. interventions.

Why the PAKAFUZ railway and oil hub matter

Economic ambitions undergird the strategy. Russian firms eye exploiting Afghanistan’s untapped oil and gas reserves, with plans for an Afghan oil hub serving Central Asian consumers. Connecting these resources to markets requires working infrastructure, hence the emphasis on PAKAFUZ. The railway—passing through Taliban-controlled terrain—could also rival the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), a multilateral sea-and-land route that depends on Russia, Iran and India.

The Iranian-Israeli War of 2024, however, disrupted NSTC operations, fracturing this fragile alliance. For Moscow, backing PAKAFUZ affords redundancy and shields its interests from Iranian instability. “The NSTC’s viability is in doubt,” explained regional expert Dr. Oliver Evnitsky. “Russia now bets on a China-free, U.S.-excluded alternative—advancing its own narrative of connectivity.”

Security first: Mediating a volatile neighborhood

Yet risks loom. Pakistan refuses to acknowledge the Taliban as de jure rulers, while cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghanistan has menaced its Balochistan province. Moscow, however, positions itself as a peacemaker. Unlike China—perceived as partial to Afghanistan’s exiled government-in-exile—Russia’s “neutrality” may offer leverage. In February 2025, Kremlin envoys publicly framed themselves as better mediators, offering counterterrorism coordination in exchange for Afghan-Pakistani cooperation.

The broader stakes: A Eurasian reordering

Russia’s moves echo Cold War-era contestation of superpower influence, but with modern complexities. While most NATO states still shun the Taliban—fearing emboldened Islamist regimes—regional neighbors Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have gradually resumed trade. This diverging calculus underscores a multipolar reality, where smaller states now wield geopolitical agency.

For Moscow, success hinges on resolving the twin challenges of curbing Afghan-Pakistani enmity and insulating projects from U.S.-led sanctions. The stakes are existential: failure cedes the region to rivals, while triumph establishes Russia as an indispensable partner in a reordered Eurasia.

A grand game in flux

Russia’s recognition of the Taliban is less a moral endorsement than a starkly pragmatic play to reshape its backyard. By aligning with the de facto authorities, Moscow secures a seat at the table of high-stakes negotiations over oil pipelines, railroads and regional alliances. Yet wariness persists. Even as the flag rises in Kabul, the gambit’s longevity depends on whether Russia can reconcile clashing regional agendas—or become just another power sidelined in Afghanistan’s endless churn of chaos.

Sources for this article include:

ZeroHedge.com

RT.com

Substack.com